Bowie Baysox Blog

A new year has begun, so it’s time to look forward to another Bowie Baysox season. The following is a take a highly speculative stab at the team’s 2009 roster. Please let me know what you think.

The starting rotation will almost certainly be the strength of this possible 2009 Baysox’s opening day roster. However, it will be subject to significant changes due to promotions and the recovery of Chorye Spoone from shoulder surgery.

In 2008, only 11 of Chris Tillman’s 139 innings were logged in the sixth (10.6) or seventh (0.3). However, the Eastern League’s youngest pitcher’s 10.2 K/9 were second only to teammate David Hernandez (10.6). There’s no reason to rush one of the Orioles best pitching prospects, so I am assuming he will in Bowie for a few months working on his efficiency and command. (Check out my June 2008 interview with Tillman.)

Jake Arrieta earned his promotion to Bowie. In his first professional season, Arrieta dominated the Arizona Fall League, was a Carolina League All-Star and the league’s earned run average (2.87), batting average allowed (.201) and K/9 leader (9.56), pitched a scoreless inning in the Futures Game, and won a bronze medal in the 2008 Olympics. While in Frederick, he did walk 5.66 left-handers per nine innings suggesting that he could be throwing his breaking stuff for more strikes.

Brandon Erbe smoothed out his mechanics led the Carolina League in strikeouts (151) and WHIP (1.13) during his second year there. Erbe also led the league in homeruns allowed (1.25 HR/9) and struggled from the stretch for most of the season. He will need to keep the ball down and refine his change-up in 2009. Erbe also had a league leading .266 BABIP, which indicates factors out of his control such as solid defense and luck contributed to his success in 2008.

Zach Clark’s strong ground ball tendencies should earn him a spot in the Baysox opening day rotation. Clark’s K/9 were 7.24 in 2006, 5.42 in 2007 and 3.90 in 2008. While Kyle Schmidt will try to improve upon 6.14 BB/9 in 22 innings with the Baysox in 2008. (He has a career 3.14 BB/9 in 416 minor league innings.)

Chorye Spoone underwent surgery from a labrum tear in his right shoulder in September.  It’s a tough injury to recover from, but he could have a chance to show the stuff that made him MVP of the 2007 Carolina League playoffs by mid-year.

The Baysox bullpen seems likely to feature several arms from the Frederick Keys 2009 staff. Lefty Chad Thall may get a shot at closing to open the season.  Former starter Ryan Rodriguez could provide multiple innings and the occasional left-handed spot start. Righties Andrew Barb, Jake Renshaw and Fredy Deza are possibilities to fill out the rest of the bullpen. Of course, Renshaw – who came to the organization in the most recent Steve Trachsel deal – has started up to this point. I’m going with Orioles Hangout on his switch to the bullpen. Regardless, it’s probably too early to scrutinize any possible roster at this level. That’s way they play Spring Training games.

Brandon Snyder seems posed to become the centerpiece on the Baysox offense as its number three hitter. In 2008, the 13th overall pick in the 2005 draft overcame a .603 OPS in 83 April at bats to finish fourth in the Carolina League at .848. Snyder then posted a 1.098 OPS in 72 plate appearances as one of the youngest players in the Arizona Fall League. In Frederick, his OPS did slip from .526 against righties to .384 against lefties and he enjoyed a .366 BABIP. It will be especially interesting to see if Bowie manager Brad Komminsk tests the former catcher’s arm and footwork with a starting role at third base.

Some combination of Jeff Nettles (24 home runs in 2008), Brandon Tripp (17 HR) and Chris Vinyard (16 HR) could be intimidating, if strikeout prone, four to six hitters in Bowie’s batting order.

I’m guessing the organization will want to keep Nettles in Bowie to provide some veteran leadership. Of course, I could be very wrong, especially if his .261 BABIP in 2008 improves and he shows stronger on-base skills.

Brandon Tripp was also hindered by a lowish .279 BABIP in 2008. Still, with a 33.9 percent strikeout rate the 2008 Carolina League All-Star and 2007 Orioles Minor League Player of the Year had some trouble getting the ball into play at all last year.

Despite Vinyard’s homeruns, his slugging percentage continued its slide from .489 at Aberdeen in 2006 to .443 at Delmarva in 2007 to .388 at Frederick in 2008. His patience did improve last year, but Vinyard needs to return to form in his 24-year-old season.

Carlos Rojas, Danny Figueroa and Jonathan Tucker could be called on to set the table for the Bowie sluggers. Rojas got most of the at bats out of the Baysox number two spot in 2008. His .295 slugging percentage and .048 isolated power were lowest among qualifying Eastern League hitters.

Figueroa’s .294 slugging percentage was the second lowest in the Carolina League and his .055 ISO the lowest in 2008. However, the Keys frequent leadoff hitter had a respectable .370 OBP and stole 33 bases in 40 attempts (an 82.5 percent success rate).

Tucker hit out of the eight hole for most of 2008, but his relatively low strikeout rate (15.3 percent) and ability to hit behind runners make be think he could move up to the number two slot. Tucker has a .840 OPS against left-handed pitchers in 430 minor league at bats.

The bottom spots in the 2009 Baysox batting order are pretty murky. Former top prospect Adam Donachie seems likely to spend some time catching and hitting in the seven to nine spots. Very light-hitting shortstop Robert Valido should hit down in the order as well.