Monday, April 20 – 7:05 p.m. Erie SeaWolves RHP Jake Arrieta (1-0, 1.00 ERA) vs. LHP Jon Kibler (0-1, 8.83 ERA)
Tuesday, April 21 – 7:05 p.m. Erie SeaWolves LHP Troy Patton (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Alfredo Figaro (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Wednesday, April 22 – 11:05 a.m. Erie SeaWolves RHP Brandon Erbe (0-2, 1.00 ERA) vs. RHP Brooks Brown (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Arrieta, Patton and Erbe have a collective 0.62 ERA and 9.31 K/9 29 innings in 2009 and the Erie hitters are tied for the Eastern League lead with 89 strike outs. (Erie right fielder Brennan Boesch and short stop Cale Iorg lead the league with 16 SOs.) So, this series may include some short games.

The Erie offense isn’t without its threats, though. Left fielder Maxwell Leon has a 1.042 OPS in 32 at bats and first baseman Ryan Strieby has a 1.039 OPS, 37 ABs.

First baseman Brad Snyder and center fielder Paco Figueroa have led the Baysox offense. Snyder leads the Eastern League with 16 hits. Figueroa is tops in the EL with six doubles.  The Baysox have struggled with getting on base, as the team’s .306 on-base percentage is last in the league.

April 8 – (RHP) Hector Rondon vs. (RHP) Jason Berken
April 9 – (LHP) Frank Herrmann vs. (TBA) – my guess (LHP) Troy Patton
April 10 – (RHP) Josh Tomlin vs. (TBA) – my guess (RHP) Jake Arrieta
April 11 – (RHP) Steven Wright vs. (TBA) – my guess (RHP) Brandon Erbe

The Akron Aeros won a controversial Eastern League championship series against the Baysox with a little help from a fellow named Travis Hafner. The Aeros should be in the hunt in 2009, as well.

Akron’s opening day starter, Hector Rondon is compared to Fausto Carmona by those in the know.  Last year, he had a 9.00 K/9 and an equally impressive 3.45 K/BB as a 20-year-old in Carolina League.

Catcher Carlos Santana was named the California League MVP despite missing the final month of the season after being traded to the Indians organization. He compares favorably to Victor Martinez at the same age, but may have more power, a better arm and more speed.

Right fielder Nick Weglarz is a 6’3”, 245-pound left fielder with significant power and a great batting eye. He’s often compared to Jim Thome. Like Thome he doesn’t move particularly well, so he could join the crowded line of future first basemen in the Cleveland organization.

First baseman/DH Beau Mills is the son of Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills. The 2008 Carolina League MVP and Cleveland’s minor league player of the year has great power, but could stand to fine tune his hitting approach especially now that he’s moved from third to first base for good.

Shortstop Carlos Rivero is often compared to Jhonny Peralta. Rivero is a rare middle infielder with power and player to watch in 2009.

The series begins with Mike Ashmore, Trenton Thunder beat writer for the Hunterdon County Democrat and the man behind Thunder Thoughts (thunderbaseball.wordpress.com).

Mike was kind enough to let us in on which Thunder players to watch in 2009, which former major league All-Star Austin Jackson most resembles, and what Brian Cashman told him about having a winning farm system.

You’re the Thunder beat writer for Hunterdon County Democrat. What made you decide to start Thunder Thoughts as well and what’s your favorite thing about covering the team?

Writing for a weekly paper, I wanted to have a way to provide daily coverage of the team, and I thought that the blog would be the best way to do it.  I also saw that there really weren’t any Thunder blogs, so I was looking to hopefully fill a bit of a void in that sense as well.

My favorite thing about covering the team…wow, there are a few, really.  I like feeling like a part of a big family as I do with the Thunder front office.  It’s nice to walk in there and feel appreciated and have everyone know your name and to feel respected.  I like that the team is as successful as it is…I’ve been lucky to have not had to cover a bad team in a while over the span of my various beats, but it’s not fun going into a locker room full of pissed off guys on a regular basis, I can assure you.  And also, just from a professional standpoint, it’s been a great avenue to kind of get my name out there and get some exposure as well.  The blog has been fortunate enough to get a lot of attention, and as someone who’s still relatively young and trying to work my way up, I couldn’t ask for a better situation.

What’s your favorite Thunder memory or moment?

That’s another one that’s hard to narrow down to one.  As a fan following the team before I started covering it…getting to see my first and still only benches clearing brawl after Leslie Brea drilled Steve Lomasney, that actually happened on my dad’s birthday with the two of us sitting together in the stands.

I have a few from covering the team, of course…the first would be Michael Coleman‘s walk-off home run in Game 4 of the Division Series in 2005…that was actually the year before I took over the beat, but I was still doing some photo work back then.  It isn’t even the home run I remember most, it was seeing Shelley Duncan rolling around on the ground out of excitement for the moment.  Imagine that, Shelley getting excited over something.

The second was Roger Clemens tune-up start in 2007…obviously, that was before we know what we do now.  But that still, in my mind, is the biggest thing that’s ever happened to that franchise.  To get the opportunity to have the privilege of covering an event like that when seats were going for hundreds of dollars (to a minor league baseball game) and then to get to talk to him after the game…that was unforgettable.

And the last one would have to be them winning the championship at home last season.  Getting to be on the field for that and feeling like a tiny, tiny part of it was amazing…

Can you give us an early guess at the Thunder’s 2009 line up and rotation?

This is hard when the minor league games haven’t even started yet in spring training.

Eric Hacker, George Kontos, Zach McAllister, Christian Garcia and maybe Brett Smith as your rotation…

Lineup…

Francisco Cervelli at catcher, Jorge Vazquez at first, Reegie Corona at second assuming he doesn’t stick with Seattle, Ramiro Pena at shortstop perhaps, Marcos Vechionacci at third, and then Colin Curtis, Edwar Gonzalez and James Cooper in the outfield.  Maybe Mitch Hilligoss at DH?  I don’t know…so, so hard to say right now.

Which likely 2009 Thunderers(?) are you most excited to watch?

Probably Zach McAllister and Andrew Brackman, whenever Brackman eventually gets here.  I saw McAllister pitch for Staten Island a few years ago, and to be honest, didn’t walk away too impressed…but it seems he’s done a lot to improve his status since then.  And Brackman…dude is 6’10″, 270 and hits 100 on the gun…why would I not want to see that?

What will it take for the Thunder to repeat as Eastern League champions in 2009?

Adequate offense.  The pitching will likely be pretty nasty again…so really, all they need is for the offense to be halfway decent and they’re at least going to be in the mix again.  However, it seems like there’s going to be a lot of talent in the league this year…Connecticut and Bowie come to mind right away.

If a baseball fan from outside the Trenton area could only come to one Thunder game this season when should it be and why?

Well, if we’re excluding the Eastern League All-Star Game that’s going to be held in Trenton, I’d say to come out on either June 17th to get your Austin Jackson bobblehead or on July 4th to enjoy America’s pastime and see the players in special jerseys.  I’m a sucker for alternate jerseys…so as much as I’d rather take the day off, I’m sure I’ll be there.

Who are some of the other likely Eastern Leaguers who you are excited to see in 2009?

Oh geez.  Anyone I haven’t seen before, really.  But specifically, Jake Arrieta, Junichi Tazawa, Rick Porcello, Kyle Drabek, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, Ross Detwiler…I’m sure I’m forgetting someone, and yes that list is pitching heavy…but there’s just going to be a lot of talent in the EL this year.

How good do you think Austin Jackson can be?

Devon White?  I think he’s going to be an occasional All-Star, but not a perennial All-Star.  He’s a good player and a great athlete, but he still doesn’t have that one standout tool just yet.  If he was able to develop a little more consistency and power, I think I’d have a different answer.
 

What’s the likelihood that Jose Tabata can pull it together? If he does, which major league would be remind you of? 

Based on what Tabata did last season in Altoona, it seems very likely that he’s already pulled it together.  He was such a big mystery last year…from walking out on the team to never really fulfilling his potential to getting hurt.  I don’t know if there was possibly too much pressure on him being such a prominent organization or what, but being with the Pirates and going into relative obscurity as he is now couldn’t hurt him.  As far as comparing him to a future big leaguer, I’d have to see him with the Pirates organization before I did that…with the Thunder, he was a guy who couldn’t pull the ball and was lazy at times.  No big leaguer’s going to get away with that for too long.

What your perception of how well the Yankees have supported their minor league affiliates?

Look at the money they spend in the draft each year, and look at the success the affiliates themselves have had…I’d say the Yankees have supported their affiliates quite well, even though Brian Cashman himself has told me he doesn’t really care about winning at the minor league level.  I guess it’s just a nice bonus.

What would you like see them do differently?

I’m obviously a bit biased here…but I’d like to see the minor league guys get more of an opportunity at the big league level.  Seemed like they were developing from within for a while…but then they signed Sabathia and Teixiera and re-signed Pettitte and they seemed to get away from that a little bit.

Aside from thunderbaseball.wordpress.com, what are some of your favorite sources for Thunder and Eastern League news and opinion?

I always read what the Trenton papers are writing about the team…as for the Eastern League, I usually go to OurSportsCentral to read about what the other teams are doing on and off the field.

Tuesday’s game is the Eastern League debut of left fielder Matt LaPorta, the prize of the C.C. Sabathia trade. 

Tuesday, July 8 – 7:05 p.m. Baysox RHP Zach Clark (2008 EL debut) vs. Aeros LHP Scott Lewis (PERA 3.67) 

Wednesday, July 9 – 7:05 p.m. Baysox RHP Chris Tillman (3.36) vs. Aeros RHP Steven Wright (5.11)

Thursday, July 10 – 7:05 p.m. Baysox RHP Jason Berken (3.90) vs. Aeros RHP Frank Herrmann (5.06)

Between June 6 and July 2, the Aeros shipped David Huff (PERA 1.94), their ace, Chris Gimenez (EqA .353), their catcher and best hitter, and Randy Newsom (PERA 3.84), their closer, off to Buffalo. Still, the Aeros gained and maintained the top spot in the Eastern League Southern Division due in large part to the resurgences of catcher Wyatt Toregas and left fielder Trevor Crowe.

Toregas during his stint in Buffalo this year.

Toregas opened the season at Triple-A Buffalo, but was sent to Akron on June 20 after posted a .221 EqA in 155 at bats. Toregas’ defense has always been his strong suit (8.15 range factor in 335 games at catcher), but since his demotion he’s put up .372 EqA in 50 at bats and snagged EL Player of the Week for the week ending July 6. 

Crowe during spring training this year.

Left fielder Trevor Crowe has authored a revival of his own. After posting a .481 OPS in 51 at bats in May, the Indians’ third-ranked prospect in 2007 responded with a 1.100 OPS in 105 at bats in June. Injuries and a similarly uneven performance in 2007 have dimmed Crowe’s prospect status a bit, but his recent surge got him an EL Play of the Month award for June.

Lofgren was placed on the temporarily inactive list on June 15. That teaches me to guess at these things.

Wright will make this Eastern League debut. He had a 3.25 PERA and  a 7.6 K/9 in 72.3 innings with Kinston of the Carolina League. Cleveland picked Wright in the second round of the 2006 First-Year Player Draft out of University of Hawai`i.

Tuesday, June 17 – 7:05 p.m. Akron Aeros RHP Kevin Dixon (PERA 4.73) vs. RHP Chorye Spoone (4.69)

Wednesday, June 18 – 7:05 p.m. Akron Aeros LHP Scott Lewis (0.93) vs. RHP Chris Tillman (2.79)

Thursday, June 19 – 7:05 p.m. Akron Aeros LHP Chuck Lofgren (6.21) vs. RHP Jason Berken (4.29)

The Aeros rotation is a little less formidable following the June 6 promotion of left-hander David Huff to Triple-A Buffalo.

Tuesday’s starter Kevin Dixon has had an up-and-down season and is struggling on the road where opposing hitters have a .910 OPS against him in 62 at bats (.694 OPS against in 201 at bats at home).

Wednesday’s starter Scott Lewis returned June 6 from a two-month stint on the disable list with a strained lat. Lewis, who is on Cleveland’s 40-man roster, is playing his second season in the Eastern League and could be a late-season call up for the Indians.

Thursday’s likely starter Chuck Lofgren is the organization’s number two prospect, but is not playing up to expectations. Lofgren is walking 6.5 batters per nine innings and is having an especially hard time away from home where hitters have a .949 OPS against him in 90 at bats (.722 OPS against in 130 at bats at home).

Despite the seasons that Reading’s Lou Marson and Harrisburg’s Luke Montz are having, my Akron’s Chris Gimenez got my vote to play catcher at the Eastern League All-Star Game. Gimenez’s 1.033 OPS and Bondsian .498 OBP lead the EL. However, he’s thrown out only five of 31 base-stealers. (Maybe it’s not too late to change my vote.)

I was much more confident in my all-star vote for Akron third baseman Wes Hodges. In his second year out of Georgia Tech, Hodges has a .866 OPS in 242 at bats. He is particularly brutal against right-handers with a .932 OPS in 171 at bats.

Tuesday, May 27 7:05 p.m. Altoona Curve RHP Brad Bergesen(2.59 PERA) vs. RHP Josh Hill (4.32)

Wednesday, May 28 7:05 p.m. Altoona Curve RHP David Hernandez (3.74) vs. Kyle Bloom (5.72) – unconfirmed

Thursday, May 29 7:05 p.m. Altoona Curve RHP Jason Berken (3.64) vs. Derek Hankins (5.15) – unconfirmed

The Baysox snapped a streak of 15-straight home wins on Monday when they fell to the New Hampshire Fishercats 6 to 5. The Curve lost 21 of their last 27 games and are in last place in the Eastern League Southern Division.

Curve hitters are last in the EL in runs per game (3.15), OPS (.659), doubles (57), and walks (135). However, first baseman Jason Delaney (.308 EqA) has been a bright spot.

Jason Delaney (altoonacurve.com) 

The Pirates drafted Delaney in the 12^th round of the 2005 draft out of Boston College. He struggled in the New York-Penn League in 2005, but since has consistently delivered an OPS in the mid to high .800s.

Delaney has cooled off from a hot April when he had a .901 OPS, but he’s still third in the EL in walks (30) and OBP (.416). If there’s one knock on Delaney, it’s his lack of power for a first baseman. However that may not be a factor this week, as all of his four home runs this year were hit on the road and against right-handers.

Curve second baseman Melvin Dorta is also happy he won’t face a lefty starter during this series. This year, Dorta’s OPS against lefties is .211 (40 AB) and 1.096 (83 AB) against righties.

Friday, May 16 – 7:05 p.m. RHP Kyle Schmidt vs. LHP Paul Oseguera (my guess)

Saturday, May 17 – 7:05 p.m. RHP Brad Bergesen vs. RHP Adam Cowart (my guess)

Sunday, May 18 – 2:05 p.m. RHP David Hernandez vs. RHP Garrett Broshuis (per baysox.com)

The Defender’s rotation and bullpen have been pretty strong. The pitchers have yielded the fewest home runs (16) and fewest earned runs (108 ) in the Eastern League.

The Defenders offense has been a different story. Connecticut’s .685 OPS is second to last in the EL (league average .734) and the team is first in strikeouts with 308.

The Baysox will likely miss the Defenders’ strongest starter RHP Joseph Martinez. When Baysox starter Chris Waters was promoted, Martinez took over the Eastern League ERA lead at 2.29 (35.1 IP). Martinez and possible Saturday, May 17 starter RHP Adam Cowart have yet to give up a home run. Cowart is second to Baysox starter Jason Berken with a 1.27 BB/9 and his 2.32 ERA (42.2 IP) is second in the EL to Martinez’s mark.

The Defenders hitters are very inconsistent. Some are exceptionally disciplined. For example left fielder Eddy Martinez-Esteve is has the lowest K/PA at 5.9% and the second best BB/K at 1.67 in the EL. And catcher Adam Witter is second in the EL with a 20.5% BB/PA. On the other hand, designated hitter Simon Klink leads the EL with 37.6% K/PA and is third to last with a 3.8% BB/PA. And then there’s third baseman David Maroul.

David Maroul (easports.com)  

David Maroul was a 23^rd round draft pick in the 2005 first-round draft out of University of Texas at Austin. While he was a Longhorn, Maroul was named Outstanding Player of the 2005 NCAA World Series and appeared on the cover of EA Sports’ MVP06 NCAA Baseball. Since going pro, Maroul hasn’t put up “Playstation” numbers (.711 OPS in 1120 AB at five levels), but a closer look shows he could hurt the Baysox this weekend.

Like Klink, Maroul is a free-swinger. His .254 OBP is the lowest in the EL (112 ABs), his 1.8% BB/PA is at the bottom as well, and his 37.4% K/PA is the second highest. However, no one in the league hits a higher percentage of line drives (24% line drives/batted balls). So, when he makes contact, it’s often solid.

David Maroul OPS Splits, 2008 (through May 14)

vs. LH—.362 (32 AB)

vs. RH—.893 (75 AB)

Home—.436 (50 AB), K/PA 42.3%

Away—.994 (57 AB)

April—.479 (66 AB), K/PA 40.0%

May—1.146 (41 AB)

As you can see above, Maroul has an extreme reverse platoon split for a right-handed hitter so far this year. He strikes out an awful lot at home as well, which seems to diminish the park effect that might be hurting him at Dodd Stadium. And he is rebounding from a challenging April. (Of course, all of these insights should be considered in light of the small sample sizes.)

Unfortunately for Baysox fans, all these splits indicate Maroul could have a big weekend in Bowie (as he’ll face three right-handed starters, he’s playing away from home, and he’s having a Bondsian May). Of course, baseball games aren’t played on paper.   

btw . . .

Sunday’s starter for the Defenders RHP Garrett Broshuis has a blog at sportingnews.com.

The Baysox host the slumping Erie Seawolves for a three-game series from Tuesday, May 13 to Thursday, May 15.

Tuesday, May 13 – 7:05 p.m. RHP David Hernandez (PERA 4.03) vs. RHP Andrew Kown (7.22)

Wednesday, May 14 – 7:05 p.m. RHP Jason Berken (3.30) vs. LHP Danny Christensen (4.74)

Thursday, May 15 – 11:05 a.m. RHP Chris Tillman (2.66) vs. RHP Josh Rainwater (5.62)

The Seawolves have lost seven straight and 12 of their last 13, after being second place in the Eastern League Southern Division as late as May 2.

The Seawolves season is epitomized by toolsy/raw left fielder Wilkin Ramirez (.306 EqA). Ramirez is second in the EL with eight home runs and a .599 slugging percentage, but first in strikeouts with 44 (against only eight unintentional walks).

Wilkin Ramirez (milb.com)

In April, Ramirez had a 1.012 OPS in 100 ABs. Through 33 ABs in May his OPS is .702. That’s only surprising until you notice his April BABIP was an unsustainable .429. (It’s .360 in May, so he could have further to fall.)

What Ramirez and his teammates have done well is steal bases. The Seawolves lead the league with 55 steals and have only be caught on 27.3% of their attempts.

Erie skipper Tom Brookens and pitching coach Ray Burris switched to a six-man rotation in early May. No staff in the EL has given up more hits (349) and posted fewer Ks (161). Still, at least the Seawolves are looking for answers.

Seawolves fans would like to see the 2007 draft’s to high school pitcher Rick Porcello, who is currently at high A Lakeland. This seems interesting at first, but doesn’t bear scrutiny.

Sure, Porcello  has a 1.74 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 41.3 innings. But his defense-independent ERA is 3.00, he’s rarely pitched past the fifth (only 2.3 total innings in the sixth through eight starts), and his 5.01 K/9 is really low for someone with three plus pitches. 

None of this is very good news for Seawolves fans, but the Baysox faithful should enjoy some high-scoring games with plenty of Ks this week. 

The Baysox travel to the northern reaches of Red Sox Nation for three games against the Portland Sea Dogs from May 9 to 11.

Friday, May 9 – 7:05 p.m. RHP Chris Tillman (3.25 PERA) vs. LHP Dustin Richardson (2.84 PERA)

Saturday, May 10 – 1:00 p.m. RHP Kyle Schmidt (3.61 PERA) vs. RHP Justin Masterson (3.01 PERA)

Sunday, May 11 – 1:00 p.m. RHP Brad Bergesen (2.11 PERA) vs. RHP Matt Goodson (4.48 PERA)

It happens that the pitching match-ups are the same as the teams’ April 29 to May 1 series in Bowie, except that Kyle Schmidt has replaced Chris Waters in the Baysox rotation. It also happens that the Sea Dogs lead the Eastern League in ERA, strikeouts, runs and hits allowed, as they did last time around.

What has changed is that the Sea Dogs have reached the middle of the pack in most of the Eastern League’s interesting/useful offensive categories. Portland is also getting on base more often (.350 team OBP for second in the EL), which might be expected from a Red Sox affiliate.

Catcher Mark Wagner (.294 EqA) has made his case to be Jason Varitek’s successor stronger by going 19 for 47 (.404) in the last 13 games. His success is going a ways toward proving last year’s career high .939 OPS (.770 league average OPS) in the California League wasn’t a fluke. Of course, Wanger’s K/AB has slipped to 1 K/5.36 AB from last year’s 1 K/9.37 AB, when he was hardest player to strike out in the CL.

Michael Bowden warms up before game in Bowie, May 1 (baysoxblog.com)

The Baysox will miss the Sea Dogs two hottest starters RHP Michael Bowden (2.27 PERA) and LHP Kris Johnson (5.06 PERA). Johnson is 3-0, 0.38 ERA (23.1 IP/4 R, ER) in his last four starts. Bowden tightened his delivery during the off-season with a little Pilates and has the top Stuff score (37) in the EL.